Introduction
The India Meteorological Department has signalled that monsoon withdrawal could begin from September 19, 2026, even as it forecasts continued rainfall across a wide swath of the country. States including Delhi, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, Kerala and Tamil Nadu are among those expecting rain in the days ahead, according to forecasts issued on September 15.
What Monsoon Withdrawal Means
The southwest monsoon typically begins retreating from northwest India in mid-to-late September, with withdrawal progressing southeastward over subsequent weeks. The IMD declares withdrawal based on specific meteorological criteria including cessation of rainfall for five consecutive days, establishment of anticyclonic circulation in the lower troposphere, and a marked reduction in atmospheric moisture content over the region.
Withdrawal Criteria
- Cessation of rainfall over the area for five consecutive days
- Establishment of anticyclonic circulation in lower tropospheric levels
- Considerable reduction in moisture content, indicated by satellite imagery and humidity data
- Withdrawal normally begins from northwest India and progresses southeastward
Rain Before the Retreat
The forecast of continued rain across multiple states alongside withdrawal signals is not contradictory. Withdrawal is a gradual regional process rather than a single nationwide event, meaning parts of the country can see the monsoon retreat while others continue receiving active rainfall for weeks afterward. Peninsular states including Kerala and Tamil Nadu typically continue receiving rain well into the northeast monsoon season that follows.
Table: States in the Current Forecast
| Region | States Mentioned |
|---|---|
| North | Delhi, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh |
| East | Bihar, Odisha |
| South | Kerala, Tamil Nadu |
Why the Timing Matters
Monsoon withdrawal timing carries significant agricultural implications, affecting the harvest of kharif crops sown at the start of the season and the sowing window for rabi crops that follow. A delayed withdrawal can damage standing crops close to harvest, while an early retreat can leave insufficient soil moisture for rabi sowing. Water reservoir levels heading into the dry season also depend on late-season rainfall.
Recent Weather Disruption
The forecast follows a period of heavy rainfall across parts of the country, including waterlogging around Mumbai's Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport earlier in the week and heavy rain alerts covering Delhi and numerous other states. That pattern of intense late-season activity is part of what has kept the exact withdrawal date uncertain.
Expert Insight
Meteorologists caution that withdrawal dates are frequently revised as conditions evolve, and early indications should be treated as provisional rather than fixed. The practical advice for farmers and those in flood-prone areas is generally to follow rolling IMD bulletins rather than planning around a single announced date, since the withdrawal process typically unfolds over several weeks with considerable regional variation.
Key Takeaways
- The IMD has indicated monsoon withdrawal could begin from September 19, 2026.
- Rain is forecast across Delhi, Punjab, UP, Bihar, Odisha, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
- Withdrawal is a gradual regional process, not a single nationwide event.
- Timing affects kharif harvests, rabi sowing and reservoir levels.
FAQ
When will the monsoon withdraw this year?
The IMD has indicated withdrawal could begin from September 19, 2026, though such dates are provisional and subject to revision.
Will it still rain after withdrawal begins?
Yes. Withdrawal progresses regionally over several weeks, and southern states typically continue receiving rain into the subsequent northeast monsoon season.
Why does withdrawal timing matter?
It affects kharif crop harvests, the sowing window for rabi crops and water reservoir levels heading into the dry season.
Conclusion
With rain still active across much of the country, the monsoon's retreat looks set to be gradual rather than abrupt. Farmers and those in flood-prone urban areas would do well to track rolling IMD bulletins rather than treating any single date as definitive.
